Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4086

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.096). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4085, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4086
    20 Oct 2026, 09:34 UTC

    MTMR2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMTMR2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9dcd49633ae1469e

    discovery+0.59 p=0.096 n=9

    replication+0.52 p=0.149 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.096)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a2f39543a97bbc7ea25dfb93…
    follows 8bae191d75ca…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4086: MTMR2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.38 to +0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTMR2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.