Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 4069

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.018; held-out -0.03 p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 4068, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 4069
    20 Oct 2026, 09:12 UTC

    ZNF780A

    microglia, braak

    predictionZNF780A in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0e734720c1f0b732

    discovery+0.76 p=0.018 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.018; held-out -0.03 p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    edbab1724c9b0f448d9bdcc9…
    follows 933f942b950b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 4069: ZNF780A in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF780A in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.