Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3962

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.459). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3961, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3962
    20 Oct 2026, 06:49 UTC

    CCR10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCR10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered64248bc44aa16847

    discovery-0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.459)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ef27fb45ab013ee0fae0b508…
    follows 9a7e6047dd25…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3962: CCR10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCR10 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.