Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3908

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.216). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3907, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3908
    20 Oct 2026, 05:41 UTC

    BMP7

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionBMP7 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4955d03a80482196

    discovery-0.46 p=0.216 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.406 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.216)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    513cbe861c87b02d73c1ca29…
    follows f96629fa2d7f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3908: BMP7 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.66 (p 0.0029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BMP7 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.