Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3895

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.172). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3894, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3895
    20 Oct 2026, 05:24 UTC

    FGD4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGD4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede5219e9e35a73137

    discovery-0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.172)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1acb5aaac3af75e97ec8b2e1…
    follows 5a6522f67a28…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3895: FGD4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGD4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.