Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3891

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.489). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3890, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3891
    20 Oct 2026, 05:18 UTC

    OPTN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOPTN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered70ce0567c31aea6c

    discovery+0.27 p=0.489 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.272 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.489)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3f393497ce36ff97baeaf082…
    follows 692370d1448d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3891: OPTN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OPTN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.