Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3865

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.613). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3864, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3865
    20 Oct 2026, 04:43 UTC

    ATP7A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATP7A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3360ca4efc48ca08

    discovery-0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    replication+0.88 p=0.0020 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.613)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e97037ccc6310939449dec1d…
    follows 4637d41cf4a2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3865: ATP7A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.62 (p 0.0057, n 18) vs +0.25 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP7A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ATP7A · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured