Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3848

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.374). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3847, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3848
    20 Oct 2026, 04:18 UTC

    PTBP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPTBP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5e0d50e209877bf7

    discovery-0.34 p=0.374 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.374)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c77b5db76c29ee620261cf37…
    follows 3fb81c5009b2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3848: PTBP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.16, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTBP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.