Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3817

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.217). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3816, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3817
    20 Oct 2026, 03:39 UTC

    NTRK2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionNTRK2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered36f1936617a7a743

    discovery-0.46 p=0.217 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.504 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.217)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7a5cd1732518addbcd335c0b…
    follows 85d658553f37…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3817: NTRK2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NTRK2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.