Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3809

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.539). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3808, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3809
    20 Oct 2026, 03:28 UTC

    UGT8

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionUGT8 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredeaaaa66cf2cb9539

    discovery+0.24 p=0.539 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.539)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3099b192fc02f186ab2c6b67…
    follows 494fd8a6ca01…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3809: UGT8 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UGT8 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.