Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3801

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.163). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3800, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3801
    20 Oct 2026, 03:20 UTC

    ARHGAP27

    microglia, braak

    predictionARHGAP27 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3a2dda149112bf5a

    discovery-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.348 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.163)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c8327a341665ebbb75c6a3f9…
    follows 7a4785322690…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3801: ARHGAP27 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP27 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.