Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3712

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.888). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3711, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3712
    20 Oct 2026, 02:03 UTC

    CLN3

    microglia, braak

    predictionCLN3 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered73e274efc9f72e85

    discovery+0.06 p=0.888 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.888)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a32df865329306ae25bbe5ca…
    follows fd90f636f620…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3712: CLN3 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.02, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLN3 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.