Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3704

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.088). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3703, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3704
    20 Oct 2026, 01:49 UTC

    STAT5B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTAT5B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcaa297ceaf1b3398

    discovery-0.60 p=0.088 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.912 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.088)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d85d653da2dc80f07d2e5fc9…
    follows 5942b9b2f6cd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3704: STAT5B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.010, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STAT5B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.