Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3687

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3686, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3687
    20 Oct 2026, 01:27 UTC

    EEF2K

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionEEF2K in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered01c0bca95a08ea34

    discovery+0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f3d82de8eee96d4b1042fa28…
    follows f487261c977c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3687: EEF2K in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.23, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.75 (p 3.5e-4, n 18) vs +0.12 in astrocytes. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EEF2K in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up EEF2K · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.65 p 0.021 (needs p < 5.2e-4)