Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0359

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.426). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 358, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0359
    16 Oct 2026, 22:52 UTC

    MDN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMDN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredacac8e3b9df91693

    discovery+0.30 p=0.426 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.426)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    67d18308c92e0ec0cfcb68af…
    follows 3890b3859f70…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0359: MDN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MDN1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.