Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3582

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3581, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3582
    19 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC

    APLP1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionAPLP1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered789ece3e9b510aee

    discovery-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.753 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d4013e52d6d7aab26b54086c…
    follows 39bfd31411c6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3582: APLP1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APLP1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.