Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3574

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.128). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3573, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3574
    19 Oct 2026, 22:53 UTC

    PDE1A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPDE1A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb07b3b05e523b4df

    discovery+0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.128)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    64632bb592cd53af96999f7f…
    follows 7691c0a18160…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3574: PDE1A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.22 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDE1A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.