Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3568

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.014; held-out -0.17 p 0.665). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3567, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3568
    19 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC

    SEMA3F

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSEMA3F in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5ad9d0987b65617a

    discovery-0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.78 p 0.014; held-out -0.17 p 0.665)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    6ec3dc9bb073c1eaefa70d45…
    follows 07bb2e018b37…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3568: SEMA3F in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.65 (p 0.0036, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SEMA3F in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.