Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3557

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.81 p 0.0080; held-out +0.02 p 0.965). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3556, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3557
    19 Oct 2026, 22:28 UTC

    PDE4D

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPDE4D in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb0e3887c6550fdef

    discovery+0.81 p=0.0080 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.81 p 0.0080; held-out +0.02 p 0.965)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    eaae9ac042376e109fd285d1…
    follows aea51d573462…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3557: PDE4D in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDE4D in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.