Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3549

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3548, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3549
    19 Oct 2026, 22:20 UTC

    PDE3B

    microglia, braak

    predictionPDE3B in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede67ea5e244f596da

    discovery+0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.507 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ef5a4a1acc2c0c2f39ba6d38…
    follows 0f250f8efcea…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3549: PDE3B in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.18, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PDE3B in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.