Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3547

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.86 p 0.0031; held-out -0.55 p 0.123). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3546, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3547
    19 Oct 2026, 22:17 UTC

    CTBP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCTBP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1d22c6b3189ea904

    discovery-0.86 p=0.0031 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.86 p 0.0031; held-out -0.55 p 0.123)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    fa747fbf3aca266c98f02c92…
    follows 9a3219cf226c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3547: CTBP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.74 (p 4.4e-4, n 18), 95% CI -0.90 to -0.42. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.78 (p 1.4e-4, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.79 (p 1.1e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.81 to -0.71, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.74 (p 4.4e-4, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTBP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.