Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3521

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3520, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3521
    19 Oct 2026, 21:41 UTC

    CLP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCLP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda6166f59e388169a

    discovery+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication-0.72 p=0.029 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    42534a6b90ef2a207d87fd10…
    follows e113959f41c8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3521: CLP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.