Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3507

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.545). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3506, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3507
    19 Oct 2026, 21:22 UTC

    VAC14

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVAC14 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2594541ff0d8d7f4

    discovery+0.23 p=0.545 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.039 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.23, p 0.545)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d8dda7bb184867f72866b2cb…
    follows 69790c8f89cc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3507: VAC14 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.68 (p 0.0021, n 18) vs -0.36 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VAC14 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up VAC14 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.30 p 0.286 (needs p < 5.2e-4)