Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3505

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.570). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3504, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3505
    19 Oct 2026, 21:19 UTC

    CXCL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCXCL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered781fb852ebf8d818

    discovery+0.22 p=0.570 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.570)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    78bf3c8a405fac1849b069e4…
    follows 149db20909a2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3505: CXCL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.01 to +0.20, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CXCL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.