Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0035

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.45, p 0.126). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 34, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0035
    16 Oct 2026, 15:17 UTC

    CHRM1

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionCHRM1 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered1f9dfc8e6fffcea9

    discovery-0.45 p=0.126 n=26

    replication-0.07 p=0.788 n=29

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.45, p 0.126)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cca12ba88e808c3e7660e3b1…
    follows c2fe33a22b15…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0035: CHRM1 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.230, n 55), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.26 (p 0.185, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.178, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.212, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for CHRM1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.