Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3493

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.084). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3492, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3493
    19 Oct 2026, 21:03 UTC

    OTUD3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOTUD3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered09f4f124ec9e04f6

    discovery-0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.560 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.084)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a2b56e8b54e36d9f669167a…
    follows fe686bf6bb37…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3493: OTUD3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.097, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OTUD3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.