Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3482

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.442). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3481, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3482
    19 Oct 2026, 20:49 UTC

    ATP1B2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionATP1B2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0b080048b611f17e

    discovery-0.29 p=0.442 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.442)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    43ae6b3ec23799473d9c363b…
    follows a274039a3878…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3482: ATP1B2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.04, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP1B2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.