Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3466

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.39 p 0.295). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3465, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3466
    19 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC

    CD68

    microglia, braak

    predictionCD68 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd4d90082b82bf197

    discovery+0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.295 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.71 p 0.032; held-out -0.39 p 0.295)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    1b30ea9d6ca0946eb6df754a…
    follows d1f370cc25bd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3466: CD68 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.676, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.620, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.25, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.676, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD68 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.