Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3464

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3463, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3464
    19 Oct 2026, 20:27 UTC

    SH2B1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSH2B1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered53707a5683365fa4

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    67778c58307953d97c5ffc57…
    follows 33d467c386e7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3464: SH2B1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18) vs -0.40 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH2B1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SH2B1 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.80 p 0.0045 (needs p < 5.3e-4)