Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0346

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 345, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0346
    16 Oct 2026, 22:35 UTC

    COPB2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOPB2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda0db6a645c645769

    discovery+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.724 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    150c8dcca571da6fc58ae7fa…
    follows c361ebb3623f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0346: COPB2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.12, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COPB2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.