Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3400

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3399, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3400
    19 Oct 2026, 19:04 UTC

    OPRM1

    microglia, braak

    predictionOPRM1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredae8fe95f1f2276f6

    discovery-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8ef2ac836a31c9a37b65c586…
    follows 652b405f4847…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3400: OPRM1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to +0.04, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: +0.75 (p 3.3e-4, n 18) vs -0.09 in microglia. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OPRM1 in microglia.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up OPRM1 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.07 p 0.790 (needs p < 5.4e-4)