Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3382

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.136). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3381, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3382
    19 Oct 2026, 18:42 UTC

    ANK3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionANK3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered915d1daa63095a96

    discovery-0.54 p=0.136 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.136)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    88c655096b5404f17a5afae7…
    follows f0ca30a079ea…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3382: ANK3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANK3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.