Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3284

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.565). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3283, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3284
    19 Oct 2026, 16:33 UTC

    NEDD4L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNEDD4L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered86de2f254de28e2f

    discovery-0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.565)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aaf4b98b9696e4ff2b1abd1e…
    follows 107b0c202170…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3284: NEDD4L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NEDD4L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.