Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3276

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.563). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3275, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3276
    19 Oct 2026, 16:22 UTC

    VMP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVMP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2497f9d43c72f799

    discovery+0.22 p=0.563 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.367 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.563)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9dfeb57e91117ffbee308e56…
    follows ff43a8c355fb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3276: VMP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.05, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VMP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.