Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3271

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.108). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3270, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3271
    19 Oct 2026, 16:16 UTC

    SCN1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCN1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbd576d4370c87a3a

    discovery-0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    replication-0.56 p=0.114 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.108)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    31649145ecb8cf410191e453…
    follows b222414463d3…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3271: SCN1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.14. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.75 to -0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.57 (p 0.013, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCN1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.