Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0323

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 322, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0323
    16 Oct 2026, 22:02 UTC

    CLTC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCLTC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered969af8cf1176db12

    discovery+0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8511c5f37cfb29a5ef4fd016…
    follows fdd598ef4e51…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0323: CLTC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.51 (p 0.030, n 18), 95% CI +0.06 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.45 to +0.59, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLTC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.