Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0032

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.16, p 0.574). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 31, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0032
    16 Oct 2026, 15:14 UTC

    MAPT

    oligodendrocytes, resilience

    predictionMAPT in oligodendrocytes differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registered2f7fa65af76b747a

    discovery-0.16 p=0.574 n=27

    replication-0.58 p=0.033 n=28

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.16, p 0.574)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    82a65c667b4ca0c3ab44e856…
    follows 246c8fa76053…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0032: MAPT in oligodendrocytes, resilience

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.135, n 55), 95% CI -0.52 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.26 (p 0.185, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.52 (p 0.0075); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.449, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.087, n 46). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)" for MAPT in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.