Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3194

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.387). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3193, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3194
    19 Oct 2026, 14:32 UTC

    ATXN7L1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATXN7L1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8ed4e35e944d783

    discovery-0.33 p=0.387 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.387)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0bc9d5521d0bb30c03f166ad…
    follows fb31199885a8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3194: ATXN7L1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATXN7L1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.