Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3187

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.049; held-out -0.05 p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3186, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3187
    19 Oct 2026, 14:21 UTC

    GRM4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGRM4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd6c6119bc797d728

    discovery-0.67 p=0.049 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.049; held-out -0.05 p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    4505c223d3bef224ba5a3abc…
    follows 2ad70ee2d1ef…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3187: GRM4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRM4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.