Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0315

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 314, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0315
    16 Oct 2026, 21:51 UTC

    AP2M1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAP2M1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddc9c1e53e8364d38

    discovery-0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a7f140f70edae438a4b6d151…
    follows 4ed48c6dbf17…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0315: AP2M1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.17, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AP2M1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.