Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3115

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.498). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3114, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3115
    19 Oct 2026, 12:39 UTC

    HSPA1A

    microglia, braak

    predictionHSPA1A in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2c7fb0c8d309709c

    discovery+0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.498)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2ce5f22b7823cddd31a56890…
    follows 893eec3eb379…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3115: HSPA1A in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.13, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSPA1A in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.