Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3113

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.116). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3112, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3113
    19 Oct 2026, 12:36 UTC

    ADAR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADAR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered494f7c1227c6c291

    discovery+0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.116)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    65a56e4851dec30fd89d1933…
    follows ef5b87051ed6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3113: ADAR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.42 (p 0.086, n 18), 95% CI -0.06 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADAR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.