Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3105

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3104, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3105
    19 Oct 2026, 12:25 UTC

    KCNA2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionKCNA2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcbbcc42162d32bb3

    discovery+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication+0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c5815339a48c1361f92d0c74…
    follows 5caccb3e4079…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3105: KCNA2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNA2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.