Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3099

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.321). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3098, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3099
    19 Oct 2026, 12:17 UTC

    RHBDL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRHBDL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc565e02c23439703

    discovery-0.37 p=0.321 n=9

    replication-0.48 p=0.194 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.321)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    480233c7acde1f334ca692cd…
    follows 54aafb4e6643…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3099: RHBDL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.07. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.67 to -0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RHBDL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.