Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3093

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.924). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3092, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3093
    19 Oct 2026, 12:09 UTC

    KANTR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKANTR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered29832ac82ffe7f2d

    discovery-0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.924)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bed017458e23fcb4b24b6c23…
    follows f6e8041c34db…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3093: KANTR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.153, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.21, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KANTR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.