Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 3086

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.378). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 3085, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 3086
    19 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC

    MED12L

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMED12L in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfcf2f7f14f2d2d61

    discovery-0.34 p=0.378 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.378)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4f0a6ac5e0b013dcbebf7dae…
    follows 7a6099f3f0d7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 3086: MED12L in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MED12L in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.