Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0308

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 307, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0308
    16 Oct 2026, 21:43 UTC

    CD38

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCD38 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1645d1a8928e1076

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9cfc5b5b58103f255c41a4be…
    follows 983e040d777c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0308: CD38 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD38 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.