Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0298

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 297, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0298
    16 Oct 2026, 21:29 UTC

    TMEM163

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTMEM163 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb12c6aa8e2cf8b2b

    discovery+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5b1a69401589400653042058…
    follows d8ce9068fa70…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0298: TMEM163 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM163 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.