Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2968

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.81 p 0.0084; held-out -0.32 p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2967, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2968
    19 Oct 2026, 09:26 UTC

    UBE2K

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2K in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaa0f2c95af5a1ea1

    discovery+0.81 p=0.0084 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.81 p 0.0084; held-out -0.32 p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    8ff065bc80cc0d1fa5e7cea0…
    follows e69767c71bbd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2968: UBE2K in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.164, n 18), 95% CI -0.15 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.26 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2K in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.