Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2954

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2953, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2954
    19 Oct 2026, 09:07 UTC

    BNIP3L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBNIP3L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6e3925bc07bc5a25

    discovery+0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3c88c1ed221a80c48e7e4663…
    follows 3d9bdc0ab8d6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2954: BNIP3L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BNIP3L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.